The Threat of the Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake
It has been 324 years since the last major Cascadia subduction zone earthquake, and in that time, the Washington coast has seen significant changes, including millions of visitors and thousands of residents. However, this peaceful and serene coastal region is hiding a sleeping threat that could potentially cause the biggest earthquake and tsunami the region has seen in centuries.
The Threat of the Cascadia Subduction Zone
The Cascadia subduction zone is a major fault line located 70 miles offshore deep under the seafloor of the Pacific Ocean. In the event of a major earthquake, this fault line could generate a massive tsunami, inundating the beaches, boardwalks, and waterfront properties within just 15 minutes. The wave would then continue to move inland, causing catastrophic damage to schools, homes, and businesses.
Hannah Cleverly, the emergency manager for Grace Harbor County, emphasizes the catastrophic nature of the potential disaster, highlighting the devastating impact it would have on coastal communities. This has led to questions and concerns regarding FEMA's latest National Risk Index (NRI) and its assessment of tsunami risk for coastal counties.
FEMA's National Risk Index and Assessing Tsunami Risk
FEMA's National Risk Index is a tool used to assign risk ratings to various threats, such as landslides, wildfires, and winter weather, for every county in the United States. However, the concern raised by emergency managers in the state of Washington is that FEMA's assessment of tsunami risk for coastal counties seems to be underestimated.
Despite the looming threat of a massive tsunami, FEMA's NRI assigned relatively low to moderate tsunami risk ratings for all Washington coastal counties. These ratings fail to accurately capture the potential catastrophic impact, especially for counties like Grace Harbor, Pacific, Jefferson, and Colum, which reside directly on the coast.
Understanding the Impending Disaster
Chris Goldfinger, a researcher at Oregon State University, studies ancient earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone. He emphasizes that the next big earthquake is not just a theoretical possibility but a real and imminent threat. Goldfinger's work contributes to an earthquake archive spanning over 10,000 years, highlighting the historical frequency and severity of seismic events in the region.
Goldfinger's expertise underscores the urgency for coastal Washington communities to prepare for the impending disaster. He stresses that existing infrastructure is inadequate to withstand the impact of a major earthquake and tsunami, and immediate action is necessary to ensure the safety and survival of residents.
Preparation and Mitigation Efforts
According to Washington State's Emergency Management officials, there is an urgent need to construct vertical evacuation structures to provide a chance of survival in the event of a tsunami. These structures, which cost millions of dollars, are crucial for coastal communities, but funding limitations pose a significant challenge.
The recent failure of a bond measure in Grace Harbor County to fund vertical evacuation structures at schools and in Ocean Shores underscores the financial constraints faced by local governments. The inability to secure sufficient funding for critical infrastructure raises concerns about the allocation of resources and the need for federal support in mitigating the impending disaster.
FEMA's Response and Challenges
In an interview with FEMA's lead manager for the National Risk Index, a small team of federal employees is tasked with analyzing and updating the data. The complex task involves processing historical disaster data for every census tract in the United States, highlighting the immense workload and resource constraints faced by FEMA.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency acknowledges the challenges in accurately assessing tsunami risk, especially given the limited historical data available for such an event. However, there is a commitment to working with national tsunami hazard mitigation partners to update the NRI and provide the best available data for communities' planning and preparedness efforts.
The Urgency of Preparedness
The looming threat of the Cascadia subduction zone earthquake and the potential catastrophic impact of a resulting tsunami necessitate urgent action and preparedness efforts. Coastal communities in Washington face significant challenges in securing the necessary resources and infrastructure to mitigate the impending disaster.
With the recognition of the limitations and challenges faced by FEMA and local governments, there is a pressing need for collaboration, advocacy, and support to ensure the safety and resilience of coastal communities. The urgency of the situation calls for swift and coordinated efforts to address the looming threat and prioritize the allocation of resources to save lives and protect vulnerable populations.
In conclusion, the potential impact of the Cascadia subduction zone earthquake and resultant tsunami underscores the critical need for effective risk assessment, infrastructure development, and community preparedness. As coastal communities in Washington face the threat of a seismic event with far-reaching consequences, addressing the challenges highlighted by FEMA's National Risk Index becomes an essential step towards resilience and disaster mitigation.